DIY survey - population at risk

I'VE poked fun in the past at pr people sending us surveys to publicise products.

Anyone on a regional newspaper knows that unfortunately the well of inspiration usually runs pretty dry when it comes to promoting some contracts. They basically carry out a survey, which is somehow regionally broken down, to ensure coverage in small papers around the country.

But this one from Citigate deserves a mention in despatches for one of the greatest ever extrapolations of data from a pretty minute source.

The release relates to 'DIY Disasters' and is aimed at publicising Homeserve - a company which offers workmen to come round and do your DIY for you.

Anyway, let's look at their figures. "New research by HomeServe shows that some 956,000 people injure themselves every year in the region by taking on troublesome home improvements."

"Accident and emergency units across the West Midlands have to deal with around 42 injuries caused by botched DIY problems every day." (they didn't actually get in touch with any hospitals, just based it on the survey results).

Ah - I geddit - make people think they'll end up in A&E putting up those shelves and they'll hire someone - ie Homeserve - in!

The figure of 956,000 people injuring themselves every year sounds a bit iffy. In the press release they explain their reasoning thus:

"People in the West Midlands that have had a DIY accident in past 5 years: 956,000 [how this figure is arrived at given they asked 2051 adults from across the whole country is not explained].
Therefore spread over 5 years = 191,200 per year
Divided by 365 days = 523 per day
8% of injuries in the Midlands resulted in victims being checked at A&E = 42 A&E visits per day"

Hang on a minute - they said it was 956,000 EACH year - not 191,200. And it does seem something of a leap in statistical analysis to say that if eight per cent of the small number of Midland respondents answered they had been to A&E in the last five years, therefore eight per cent of the ENTIRE population must have.

Anyway I feel like I've come up with the answer. Don't do DIY, certainly don't hire someone in to do it, and spend the money saved on beer. And certainly don't believe any figures you read in 'survey' stories.