Birmingham Party Central

Well the Leader's Debates are over and we are into the final week of the election campaign. What impact have they had and where is the election going now?

After Nick Clegg's clear victory in the first debate, Cameron and Brown improved their performances, so that while the first debate changed the nature of the election - into a genuine three party battle, the following two tended to be awarded to the leaders more or less in line with current opinion polls. These are consistently indicating that the three parties line up with the Tories in a narrow lead, the Lib Dems in second and Labour in third. What is crucial now is how the undecided voters make up their minds. This is clearly all to play for, though encouragingly for the Lib Dems, according to the pollster Angus Reid, the undecided voters preferred Nick Clegg's performance (37%) to Cameron (25%) and Brown 22%) in last night's debate.

What does seem clear is that the debates have got more people interested in the election and have given them access to the key debates in a new and easier way. I was sceptical about them before the first debate, but was rapidly won over to the format. They seem sure to become a standard part of general elections from now on and I welcome that.

The final week of the campaign will see the Tories trying to use their narrow lead as a base from which to push on and win outright. I believe that if they do it will be very bad news for our country. Their economics team are inexperienced and have made bad judgments in recent years. They are the weakest of the three parties on the crucial environmental issues (with the risks to our oil supply being symbolically highlighted by events in the Gulf of Mexico as I write). And very depressingly, after the excitement of the election campaign, a Tory victory would condemn us to another 5 years of old politics as they are wedded to the First Past the Post electoral system.

We need real change on all these issues and its the Lib Dems who are flying the flag of reform across the country. Please give us your support, when you come to cast your vote.

With the election just 11 days away, its interesting to reflect on how much has changed during the campaign. For the first week it seemed like a traditional Tory vs Labour battle with the poll of polls fairly static with the Tories on around 37%, Labour 31% and the Lib Dems on 20%.

The first Leaders's Debate blew that apart and lots of people looked again or for the first time at the Lib Dems. Since the surge in our support from that debate, things have become more stable with the poll of polls now showing the Tories on 34% the Lib Dems at around 30% and Labour in third place on 27%.

This implies that the surge in Lib Dem support has come from a mix of Labour, Tory and the smaller parties in roughly equal proportions, however to me it feels that there is a bigger shift from Labour. Certainly when you compare these figures with the 2005 general election figures, you see that the Tories are stable or slightly up, while the big shift is from Labour to the Lib Dems.

The right wing media certainly see the Lib Dems as the big threat to the Tories now - and there was a clear and concerted attack on us on Thursday. I take this as the best compliment we can be paid - it shows the progress we have made, and our opinion poll rating has held up well agains the attack - I think the public understand what is going on and recognise that we are being attacked because of our success in the campaign so far.

With the polls so close, the next 11 days are going to be fascinating, very exciting for all politics watchers and no doubt exhausting for the candidates! I wouldnt have it any other way.

Despite the impact of the Icelandic volcano, which has demonstrated just how small we can be in comparison to the forces of nature, the environment has hardly featured at all so far in the General Election campaign. Not one of the questions in last Thursday's Leaders' Debate mentioned the subject.

And yet how we repond to the growing pressures on global resources (most urgently the end of plentiful cheap oil) and the threat of climate change, is likely to be one of the defining issues for the lives of our children.

The Lib Dems have put a huge emphasis on the environment in our manifesto. We believe in a big investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy production, with an aim that 40% of our energy will be come from clean non-carbon emitting sources by 2020, rising to 100% by 2050.

The current rise in petrol prices, driven by higher oil prices, which are rising despite a major economic recession, is a sign that we have to be much more frugal with the world's resources. Transforming our energy intensive economy into a low carbon economy is the way forward and we need a Government with the vision to make the big investment to get us there. The Lib Dems have that vision.

Fantastic performance by Nick Clegg in the Prime Minister Debate on Thursday night. It's filtering through in the polls (Lib Dems 30%, second to Conservatives 33%) and activity on my website.

I've been saying for months that it's wide open in Bromsgrove as people are tired of the other two parties and like what the Liberal Democrats say and behave. Over 60% of people I've canvassed are undecided and even they have admitted it is unusual, at first I thought it was the expenses scandal and the way the Conservatives have parachuted an investment banker into the area. That is only part of the reason, the main one is they have no idea what the Conservatives are offering.

There will be increased scrutiny of our policies, but we're expecting that, in fact we're already ahead of the game and have published detailed figures of our tax plans in our manifesto. Neither the Conservatives or Labour have put a single figure in theirs.

It's been a relatively clean fight in Bromsgrove, lets hope it remains that way. Nothing worse than mudslinging to put the electorate off.

Following last Thursday's Leaders' Debate, the opinion polls have shown a dramatic increase in Lib Dem support, with Labour falling into third place in many of them. Tonight's YouGov Poll puts the Lib Dems on 33%, the Tories on 32% and Labour on 26%.

The Leaders' Debate has clearly changed the whole nature of the General Election and has put the Liberal Democrats right into play as serious contenders. The movement in the polls are far beyond those anyone (including myself) expected. The Lib Dems now seem to be benefitting from a virtuous circle, as the news of our success in the polls means that many more people feel it is safe to support us, without risking wasting their votes. Indeed if tonight's poll is typical of the next few that come out it could even be Labour who start to suffer from the tactical squeeze.

The national picture is certainly mirrored in Edgbaston. More and more residents are saying to me that the Debate has had an impact on them and they will be supporting me. I'm really looking forward to seeing how the campaign develops in the remaining two and a half weeks.

As I watched the first Leader's Debate, with some Lib Dem colleagues, I thought Nick Clegg was doing well. He addressed the questions well and demonstrated the Lib Dems policy approach to many people who may not have given us that much attention in the past. To be fair both David Cameron and Gordon Brown gave competent performances, but it was Nick Clegg who shone.

The polls quickly endorsed that view. There was quite a range of figures but all put Clegg ahead. ITV's Comres poll was typical, giving Clegg 43%, Cameron 26% and Brown 20%. Some polls gave Clegg over 50%. This is likely to open up the General Election and give the Lib Dems a big boost in the next voting intention polls. A YouGov voting intention poll, immediately after the debate, put the Lib Dems up 7% and within 1%of catching Labour. There is still three weeks to go, but, as a Lib Dem, I'm feeling more and more excited about how the General Election will go!

The Liberal Democrat Manifesto was published yesterday and clearly sets out the distinctive position the Lib Dems hold in this election.

The priorities for the Lib Dems set out in the Manifesto are as follows:

1) Fair Taxes: A big cut in taxes for the low paid by raising the personal tax allowance to £10,000. This will cut tax for most people by £700. It will be fully funded by closing tax loopholes that unfairly benefit those on high incomes, a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m and higher tax on pollution.

2) A Fair Start for Every Child: Investing an extra £2.5bn in education, enabling schools to provide more support for pupils with greater needs (for example by smaller classes or extra one to one tuition). Birmingham schools would benefit by £112m.

3) Creating Jobs by making Britain Greener: Investing in the low carbon economy that successful nations will need as fossil fuels run out and become more expensive. Breaking up the banks to make sure they can never hold the country to ransom again. Making hte tough spending decisions we need to get the deficit under control.

4) Cleaing up Politics: Giving you the right to sack corrupt MPs, protecting our hard won civil liberties. Giving us fair votes and an elected House of Lords.

There has been very positive reaction to the launch of the manifesto. Amongst other comment the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies said "The Liberal Democrat manifesto contains more extensive and more detailed tax and spending proposals than those of the other main UK parties." Even the right leaning Daily Telegraph said "The most impressive part of the Liberal Democrat manifesto is its final few pages...The Lib Dems set out, in detail, how they plan to start reducing the deficit."

It will be interesting to see how the Manifesto Launch and the Leaders Debate this evening feeds through to the opinion polls in coming days.

The Liberal Democrat Manifesto was published yesterday and clearly sets out the distinctive position the Lib Dems hold in this election.

The priorities for the Lib Dems set out in the Manifesto are as follows:

1) Fair Taxes: A big cut in taxes for the low paid by raising the personal tax allowance to £10,000. This will cut tax for most people by £700. It will be fully funded by closing tax loopholes that unfairly benefit those on high incomes, a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m and higher tax on pollution.

2) A Fair Start for Every Child: Investing an extra £2.5bn in education, enabling schools to provide more support for pupils with greater needs (for example by smaller classes or extra one to one tuition). Birmingham schools would benefit by £112m.

3) Creating Jobs by making Britain Greener: Investing in the low carbon economy that successful nations will need as fossil fuels run out and become more expensive. Breaking up the banks to make sure they can never hold the country to ransom again. Making hte tough spending decisions we need to get the deficit under control.

4) Cleaing up Politics: Giving you the right to sack corrupt MPs, protecting our hard won civil liberties. Giving us fair votes and an elected House of Lords.

There has been very positive reaction to the launch of the manifesto. Amongst other comment the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies said "The Liberal Democrat manifesto contains more extensive and more detailed tax and spending proposals than those of the other main UK parties." Even the right leaning Daily Telegraph said "The most impressive part of the Liberal Democrat manifesto is its final few pages...The Lib Dems set out, in detail, how they plan to start reducing the deficit."

It will be interesting to see how the Manifesto Launch and the Leaders Debate this evening feeds through to the opinion polls in coming days.