Judge Villa from July not February

TOTTENHAM have had an appalling season. Well, they have... haven't they?

Does anyone hear think that when David Bentley close White Hart Lane ahead of Villa Park and joined a summer influx including Vedran Corluka, Heurelho Gomes, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Luka Modric that Spurs would be sitting in eighth place in the Premier League a full ten points behind Villa?

Of course, such is the start that Tottenham endured under Juande Ramos, such were the riches lavished by Harry Redknapp on the likes of Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe in January, such was their fortune in getting to the Carling Cup Final over Burnley that no one even mutters how miserable another season in North London has been.

All is rosey it would appear.

Now take Villa. All is doom and gloom. Fifth place with little to play for. All this from a team sitting third on 7 February, a full eight points clear of Arsenal and three points off the top of the tree.

This at a time when neither Chelsea or Liverpool were pulling up trees.

Chelsea needed two last-gasp goals to see off Stoke the day Villa were winning at Sunderland in January - their fifth straight away win.

They'd recently been embarrassed at both Man United and at Liverpool. West Ham, Everton and Fulham had held them. Southend had drawn at Stamford Bridge in the FA Cup. And minutes after Villa had completed a seventh straight away victory at Blackburn on February 7 news seeped through that they'd been held at home by Hull.

Liverpool? Won at Portsmouth on February 7 after coming from behind with five minutes remaining. This at a time when Everton had just knocked them out of the FA Cup and drawn with them in the league along with Stoke City and Wigan.

It seemed that glorious February day at Ewood Park as if Villa might be able to sustain a challenge to United.

But eleven games later and Villa have only moved seven points further on. United have taken 30 points from 12 games, Liverpool 26 points from 11 games, Chelsea 28 from 11 games and Arsenal 25 from 12 games.

Bottom club Albion have taken nine points in their eleven matches since February 7. That sort of puts into perspective the awful run Villa have been on.

But a season isn't judged on eleven matches, nor 25, it is judged on 38 games.

Tottenham, yes back to them again, had picked up nine points from their opening eleven matches and yet, as I say, everyone is judging theirs as a truly remarkable season.

So when all the frustrations of the past three months are forgotten, perhaps supporters will still judge Martin O'Neill's class of 2008/09 as worthy of a fifth place finish in the Premier League for the first time in a dozen years?

I realise at the time of writing that is asking quite a lot.

The 3,000 - 3,500 who made the trip to Fulham will not forget that abject second half so quickly.

In a season of such immense highs: that Blackburn win, the win at Arsenal, the delirium of that late winner at Everton, the European experience against Ajax and away win in Prague and those rare away wins in London at Tottenham and West Ham, the lows have been just as extreme: the five goal mauling at Anfield, the late turnaround at Old Trafford, a shocking first half at Manchester City, that appalling late surrender to Stoke and cup exits to QPR, Everton and Moscow.

It was so satisfying to be able to write about a win again against Hull last Monday night, but Craven Cottage - including that walk of shame by Nicky Shorey - sent Villa one step backwards.

The sizzle had long been a fizzle to Villa's season and the pop had almost become a bang.

Martin O'Neill's side had gone a dozen games without a win before they mauled of the tamest tigers you'll ever meet in Hull.

Poor George Boateng. His legs have gone. He'd still get in my best Villa X1 over the past decade (acting as a shield for the magic man Merson).

But the leg-weary ones were in claret and blue shirts beside the Thames on Saturday.

53 games since mid-July has taken its toll regardless of what the manager says.

So why exactly didn't Martin O'Neill buy some replacements in January?

O'Neill and bad runs have gone hand in hand at Villa over each of his three seasons. Expectations have been shot down before. They will be shot down again.

It is just that this season it felt like an anti-tank weapon had done the damage and not a Starsky and Hutch pistol.

O'Neill also delivered a 12-game winless run during his first season in charge, in 2006/07, although expectations were never anywhere near as high.

After sitting third with one defeat in their opening dozen games, the O'Neill-Randy Lerner honeymoon was in full sway when Chris Sutton struck the winning goal at Everton that November.

Villa proceeded to draw five league games and lose another six to slip to 14th before they finally got the better of a bedraggled Watford in January.

Perhaps the current season is probably more reminiscent of 1998/99?

Gregory's side were top of the pile in November after an unbeaten start of 12 matches that saw them lead Manchester United by three points.

Two months later Villa were level on points with leaders Chelsea after 22 games. They travelled to Newcastle at the end of January and were beaten by an early goal from Alan Shearer and another from Temuri Ketsbaia.

A run of three draws and seven defeats followed and it was not until April when they would get their next win, at home to Southampton, and they limped in sixth to miss out on Europe.

The following season Gregory's Villa were at it again.

Lying joint-second with Arsenal after eight games in September they went on a run of nine league games without a win which saw them drop to 15th.

Like Ron Atkinson's side who were challenging Manchester United for the first Premiership crown in 1992/93 only to lose their final three games to Blackburn, Oldham and QPR.

Or Graham Taylor's team of February 1990, five points clear of Liverpool with nine to play but winning only three more matches.

O'Neill isn't the first to take Villa to the brink and see them come up short - and he probably won't be the last.

But without replacements for Martin Laursen and Gareth Barry and then some major investment you would have to put your money on Villa slipping back towards mid-table next year.