UP Newcastle, Sunderland and ....Blues

Today is simple enough.

A win for Liverpool over a pathetic Newcastle (judging them on results and their second half show at Villa Park) and a win on Sunday for Everton at Sunderland and Villa's hopes of gatecrashing the top five could be over.

An eight point gap, even if it were reduced to five by Wednesday night, would be tough to make up- although Villa would do themselves a barrel-load of good if they were to win at Goodison Park on April 26.

A tonic for Villa would certainly be if Chelsea and Man United play each other in the Cup Final, thus ending the possibility of a runner-up going into the UEFA Cup anbd stealing a place.

Villa's home fixtures: Boro, Sunderland, Bolton, Blues and Wigan could easily reap 15 points although it will not work out like that. It does not help that four of those clubs are fighting relegation (and Boro are actually by no means safe).

Their away fixtures though are fraught with danger.

Portsmouth have only lost twice at home, although they have drawn seven times so your early money would be on a point.

Manchester United at Old Trafford is the toughest fixture in the book. Normally, I'd say a home banker regardless of Villa's superb away form.

But the game is pencilled in for Sunday March 30 at 1.30pm.

The quarter-finals of the Champions League are set for the following Tuesday and Wednesday and even if the Villa fixture is moved, as I have heard mooted, then United could sytill have other things on their minds (as it could be argued Arsenal did, although that would not quite do Villa justice).

Derby County away and you'd put your house on Villa getting something. But Derby may be playing for pride long before then, and a local derby could prove tricky.

Everton is the six-pointer. It wil not help Villa's cause in any way should the Toffees come to a sticky end in Europe and not turn around a two goal deficit to Fiorentina.

Then there's West Ham away. Another Alan Curbishley side appear to have hit the beaches after gaining 40 points. Charlton did it with regularity.

But a final day in East London will prove tricky indeed- not least for the extra spice of Nigel Reo-Coker and, to a much lesser extent, Marlon Harewood's returns.

Liverpool are in the box seat- although their own Champions League ambitions could yet distract them.

Reading, Fulham, Blackburn, Blues- although their record against them in recent years is poor indeed- and man City at home are winnable fixtures right enough.

But three successive league games against Manchester United, Everton and Arsenal could throw the whole fourth-place thing wide open. And they face a tricky final day at Tottenham.

Everton have got Fulham, West Ham, Derby and Blues. After the Mersey derby they also have to play Chelsea at home and Arsenal away which sandwich the Villa clash before a last day 'gimmee' against Newcastle.

It gets more complicated when you think that both Blackburn and Man City could more level with Villa this weekend, and apart from a trip to Anfield and a home date with United, Rovers do appear to have the much easier run-in: Fulham, West Ham, Wigan, Reading, Spurs, L'pool, United, Portsmouth and Derby before facing Blues on the final day.

City are falling away badly but if they beat Reading today would still feel they could have a chance of pipping Villa in the table with a run-in which includes Bolton, Blues, Sunderland, Fulham and Boro.

The one common denomenator facing all of Villa's European rivals: they all face Blues. Would a few wins for the other side of the city therefore be so bad?